Preview of the 2014 Big Bash League

Brisbane Heat

The Heat’s batting looks a bit stodgy up front with Joe Burns and Peter Forrest potentially occupying spots in the top three, however there is plenty of power and depth in the middle/lower-order via the likes of Chris Lynn, Nathan Reardon, Daniel Christian, Ben Cutting, James Hopes, Simon Milenko and Andrew Flintoff.

The Queenslanders would actually be best served elevating Christian or Hopes to open with inexperienced ‘keeper James Peirson who should at least go at a much quicker rate than his predecessor Chris Hartley.

They have plenty of options with the ball thanks to a bevy of all-rounders but there is a big question mark over the quality of their attack, especially following the withdrawal of star overseas signing Samuel Badree.

Doubts also remain over the availability of their other overseas spinner Dan Vettori. Vettori is certain to miss the first couple of games as he is currently with New Zealand’s limited-overs squad in the UAE and if he stays in the Kiwis’ set-up for home ODI series’ against Sri Lanka and Pakistan he will play no more than 4-5 games at the very most and at worst will play no part in the tournament whatsoever.

The rest of the bowling attack comprises young quicks Cameron Gannon, Mark Steketee and Alastair McDermott as well as all-rounders Cutting, Hopes, Christian and Flintoff who now looks set to play the majority of the tournament in place of Badree. Not a lot to get excited about there which is why Vettori is crucial.

Due to national commitments in all formats Shane Watson and Mitchell Johnson are unlikely to get any game time.

Look to get against the Heat early on if Burns and Forrest are in the top three, however I’d be loath to take on their middle-order with Lynn, Reardon and Cutting especially dangerous. In fact getting long towards the death would generally be the go as these guys can really get away in the final overs.

I’d be taking on their bowling attack with the distinct exception of Vettori. If the opposition are smart they will be cautious against the Kiwi veteran as there are plenty of runs to be taken from the likes of Cutting and Christian. The fact they have so many options should preclude them from conceding 200 too often but without significant contributions from their international bowlers it wouldn’t surprise to see them concede 170+ regularly.

If Vettori bowls out early (as is usually the case) look out for some carnage at the death as the Heat are short on recognised death bowlers.

Sydney Sixers

The Sixers boast an explosive top three with Michael Lumb, Nic Maddinson and Riki Wessels who replaces Dwayne Smith and should be available for the majority of the tournament.

Moises Henriques leads a middle-order which is otherwise a bit turgid with either Jordan Silk or Ed Cowan joining Ryan Carters who has a strike-rate of just 90 from 18 T20 innings, however did at least show some promise during the Matador Cup. Nonetheless the Sixers may lean on Sean Abbott for quick runs at the death.

Their bowling attack has plenty of pedigree in Mitchell Starc, Doug Bollinger, Brett Lee, Josh Hazlewood and Steve O’Keefe plus all-rounders Abbott and Henriques.

However Hazlewood and Starc might not see much action given their involvement with the test squad and probable selection in the ODI tri-series although they could regain Nathan Lyon towards the end of the competition if he misses out on the national 50-over squad.

Brett Lee is also not getting any better, generally struggling to take wickets over the last few years although he can still keep it relatively tight. O’Keefe and Trent Copeland will also be missing until the end of December.

Crucially one of the Sixers’ biggest problems is squad depth as they have a number of spots taken up by national representatives – aside from the aforementioned they also have Steve Smith and Brad Haddin who are unlikely to make a single appearance this season.

This leaves them with young spinner Luke Doran and unknown all-rounders Ben Dwarshuis and Simon Keen outside of their best XI, hardly the greatest bench strength.

With the bat they are such a top-heavy side that getting against runs after the first six looks sensible and in fact I would be happy to take on their middle/lower-order in general.

Initially the bowling attack will be very weak and lean heavily on Bollinger and Abbott but generally I would prefer to take on the “name” quicks who may be overrated by the market such as Lee and Hazlewood specifically at the death (if he ever plays).

Sydney Thunder

After three woeful seasons in the Big Bash League, finishing last on every occasion, the Sydney Thunder look stronger this year after making some relatively astute signings but still seemed more destined for the bottom half than top half.

The main issue with their batting surrounds scoring rate – Jacques Kallis, Kurtis Patterson, Chris Hartley and the now unavailable Usman Khawaja all have decent 50-over scoring rates but struggle to go at much more than a run a ball in the shortest format which just isn’t good enough. Therefore the Thunder will rely heavily on Mike Hussey, Aiden Blizzard and their second overseas player Eoin Morgan (when available) to regularly get them to totals in excess of 150.

Another problem with the Thunder’s batting is that the vast majority of their line-up is most comfortable and effective batting in the top three (Hussey, Kallis, Blizzard, Hartley and Andrew McDonald), but they don’t want to make the mistake of having their more flexible batsmen (Hussey and Morgan) bat too low.

The bowling looks stronger, especially with the added depth of Kallis and McDonald who should be effective enough provided they take pace off the ball.

Gurinder Sandhu is the jewel in the crown, an excellent bowler in this format, especially at the death. Pat Cummins is also a big coup, however he may miss the end of the tournament to take part in the ODI tri-series.

Dirk Nannes is a T20 veteran but struggled in the recent New Zealand domestic T20 comp so there are some question marks over him.

Nathan Hauritz hasn’t played much since a couple of ineffective games for the Heat last season so may find his place under fire from fellow tweaker Chris Green who offers a bit more with the bat.

Unlike their neighbours the Thunder have plenty of options outside of their first XI, but like the Sixers they are low in quality with players such as Daniel Hughes, Cameron Borgas, Chris Tremain and Josh Lalor offering very little.

The main angle on the Thunder is to oppose their strike-rate, especially early on if the likes of Kallis and Patterson are at the crease. Getting against runs at the end of the innings looks good irrespective of whether the Thunder are batting or bowling as their batting will likely lack power in the final overs and they have excellent death exponents with the ball such as Sandhu and Cummins.

However the Thunder could be a good head-to-head proposition as they seem to still be rated the worst side in the comp and while that may not be entirely inaccurate they have closed the gap between themselves and a number of other sides so should win a few more games this season or at least trade decent odds-on more regularly.

Melbourne Stars

Once again the Melbourne Stars have the strongest squad in the competition with enviable depth to boot.

Their top-four of Luke Wright, Cameron White, Keven Pietersen and Glenn Maxwell is imposing to say the least while David Hussey, Peter Handscomb, James Faulkner and John Hastings provide further quality and acceleration in the middle/lower-order.

The fact that the likes of Rob Quiney and Marcus Stoinis are unlikely to make the first XI speaks volumes although both may be involved later in the tournament when Maxwell, Faulkner and possibly White leave to play the ODI tri-series.

The bowling is undoubtedly weaker than the batting with no overseas star like Lasith Malinga but still boasts internationals Jackson Bird, John Hastings, Clint McKay and Michael Beer as well as Faulkner and Maxwell plus a host of bit-part options such as Hussey, Wright, White and Stoinis.

The Stars’ bowling depth is also nowhere near that of the batting with Luke Feldman, Simon Boland, Daniel Worrall and Clive Rose all steady but unreliable, however they shouldn’t be required as their premium attack should all be available for the entire tournament with plenty of fifth bowler options as mentioned.

The Stars are not the sort of side you want to oppose with the bat at any stage but especially up front as Wright and White both have fantastic records in this competition.

Similarly with the ball they look fairly well rounded, especially at the death with Faulkner, McKay and Hastings all viable options.

One think to note about the Stars is that they have started every season as warm favourites, qualified for the semis then crashed out so laying them outright just prior to the semis (especially as they will be weakened by the loss of Maxwell, Faulkner and potentially White) could be the way to go.

Melbourne Renegades

The Renegades have a relatively impressive batting line-up with the power of Aaron Finch and Andre Russell mixed in with seasoned T20 batsmen such as Callum Ferguson, Dwayne Bravo and Ben Rohrer.

One issue is that they lose Bravo and Russell after the first four matches as well as Finch a couple of games later although if he stays sober Jesse Ryder will be a very handy replacement for the West Indians.

Another concern is the likes of Matthew Wade, Tom Cooper, Peter Nevill and Alex Doolan slowing down the run rate but they should be surrounded by enough team-mates who go at the right rate for it not to be a significant problem.

The bowling, however, looks to be a big problem. Nathan Rimmington is excellent in this format while Bravo and the much improved Russell provide some variety, however after that there is not a lot to write home about.

James Pattinson is horribly overrated in this format and his participation is dependent on his rehabilitation from injury – originally he was slated to only play a couple of games. Peter Siddle’s availability may also be impacted by the test series but like Pattinson he’s much more effective with the red ball anyway.

Fawad Ahmed could yet prove effective, however an economy rate north of 9 (albeit after just 4 T20 matches) suggests there is plenty of downside. Aaron O’Brien is a canny T20 bowler but isn’t getting any younger or better, especially after an average showing last season.

That leaves Andrew Fekete, Nick Winter and all-rounder Matthew Short (plus Ryder’s dobblers when he plays) so the Renegades are desperately low on quality and depth with the ball.

The clear angle here is to get against the Renegades bowling, especially when the Windies pair depart. With Finch and co blasting away you also feel there will be opportunities to back the Renegades to chase down or fail to defend some big scores.

Hobart Hurricanes

Hobart are a bit like the Renegades in that they have a strong batting line-up, highlighted by a couple of international players, however their bowling is not the strongest (although not quite as weak as the Renegades).

Alex Hales, Ben Dunk and Tim Paine is a good balance in the top three and there is plenty of acceleration to come via George Bailey, Travis Birt and Darren Sammy. Jon Wells will likely occupy the other spot and while he doesn’t quite have the strike-rate of the others he is at least in good form.

However availability (or lack thereof) will also cruel the Hurricanes with Sammy departing after four games with the other West Indians (to now be replaced by Tim Bresnan), while Hales and Bailey will likely be part of their respective tri-series squads.

This will leave Hobart relying on batsmen such as Dominic Michael and Michael Hill in the latter stages which is not a great thing.

The Hurricanes bowling is not the worst but they desperately lack options at the death. Ben Hilfenhaus and Sam Rainbird should be effective up front with the new ball, while you’d expect spinners Xavier Doherty and Cameron Boyce to be miserly and potent through the middle overs respectively, although I don’t particularly fancy Sammy’s or really Bresnan’s bowling in Australian conditions.

In any case none of them (with the possible exception of Bresnan), nor the fringe bowlers such as Evan Gulbis , Joe Mennie and Jake Reed, are noted bowlers at the death, leaving only Timm van der Gugten who has done a decent job at times for the Netherlands against varying opposition.

It’s worth mentioning that these guys may get a few games towards the end of the competition too with the possibility that Doherty may be picked for Australia’s tri-series squad, although at least Bresnan coming in for Sammy should strengthen the bowling slightly, even if it does weaken the batting.

With Hobart it’s all about taking on the bowling in the latter half of the innings, ideally when Boyce has finished up, but certainly in the last five or six overs. If opposition sides keep wickets in hand they could really murder the Hurricanes towards the back end.

I’m certainly more hesitant to take on their batting, at least initially, and with Bailey, Birt and Sammy in the middle-order there will be opportunities to get long in the finals overs. However when Hales, Bailey and Sammy all disappear from the XI I’d be prepared to oppose their batting in most situations.

Adelaide Strikers

The Strikers are a power-packed side with lots of six-hitting ability coupled with a varied and astute bowling attack – I can’t really work out why they seem to be rated so poorly by the early markets?

Admittedly their batting is a bit light and has a distinct “all-or-nothing” flavour with the likes of Craig Simmons, Kieron Pollard and Jono Dean all varying degrees of boom or bust, however Brad Hodge provides some stability in the top-order and when Ryan ten Doeschate replaces Pollard he adds a touch more consistency.

There is a big question mark over who will open with Simmons with Travis Head and Tim Ludeman prime candidates. Whoever doesn’t get the job will likely provide some starch in the middle/lower-order alongside Johan Botha and potentially the destructive Trent Lawford.

The Strikes have plenty of depth in their bowling and aren’t short on quality either.

Shaun Tait mirrors the volatility of the Strikers’ batting line-up but on his day can be highly effective at either end of the innings. Kane Richardson and Ben Laughlin are good T20 bowlers at this level, while Adam Zampa and Botha form a highly adept spin duo with Jon Holland there to back them up.

There is then Pollard/ten Doeschate as well as fringe all-rounder Lawford plus Kingston plus steady quicks Gary Putland and Chadd Sayers.

The fact they have this much depth in their bowling means they won’t be impacted too badly if Richardson joins up with the national ODI squad, however the batting does look a bit light when Pollard is taken away after the first few games.

With the Strikers batting I’d be looking at volatility in either direction – if the likes of Simmons, Hodge and Pollard all come off they could make some very big scores, but then if they all fail they could make plenty of sub-130 totals.

Backing them to hit the most sixes may also be a decent angle as Simmons, Hodge, Dean, Pollard, ten Doeschate, Botha, Ludeman and Lawford are all capable of clearing the rope and most bat with that intent!

As you can probably gather I’d love to be with their bowling, although look for some volatility in either direction if Tait is bowling at the death. There will likely be some good opportunities to get against the oppositions runs when the Strikers are at home as the Adelaide Oval is often assumed to be a particularly high-scoring ground (presumably due to the fact it’s high-scoring in other formats), however no side breached 160 batting first there last season.

Perth Scorchers

The Scorchers are arguably the most successful team in Big Bash League history, having made the final on every occasion and only injuries may prevent them from doing it again.

Perth’s batting has a bit more steel to it this season with Klinger and Carberry a strong, seasoned opening pair – the latter will no doubt be underrated by Australian judges who will judge his ability in this format solely on his gritty batting at test level.

Shaun Marsh rounds out a formidable top three although now that Michael Clarke is out of the test series he will likely be unavailable for at least the first part of the competition.

The middle-order contains another experienced campaigner in Adam Voges followed by youngsters Sam Whiteman, Ashton Turner and then either Hilton Cartwright or Ashton Agar. Finishing off with the bat could be a problem as they will miss the big hitting of Nathan Coulter-Nile who is out injured for the majority of the tournament.

However Perth will miss Coulter-Nile less with the ball as they have the highest quality bowling line-up in the competition with incredible depth as well.

In Coulter-Nile’s absence Behrendorff and Yasir Arafat will likely lead the pace attack, the latter a superb bowler in this format (particularly at the death), while they also have the extremely promising Joel Paris to return from injury, hopefully by the opening round.

It’s not as if they’re short on slow-bowling options either with the evergreen Brad Hogg and talented youngsters James Muirhead and Ashton Agar who provide strike and stability respectively.

Additionally they have all-round options in Turner, Cartwright and Andrew Tye, however Mitchell Marsh is unlikely to play a single game due to national commitments.

With Perth it’s all about getting with their excellent bowling attack – Behrendorff and Paris are especially effective up front, while Arafat is a master at the death and Hogg has consistently been one of the competition’s best spinners through the middle for the last few years.

As far as the Scorchers batting is concerned getting against them at the death should prove fruitful as there are a dearth of clean hitters in the middle/lower-order without Coulter-Nile – much may rest on Ashton Agar’s shoulders.

Perth will most likely look to win games by restricting the opposition to a low score, however even then they’re likely to experience a few hiccups so they should be the ideal side to oppose when chasing a low one or back when defending a small one.

Preview of the 2014 Indian Premier League

It’s that time of year when the biggest circus in world cricket rolls into town.

Australian fans have always held an indifferent view towards T20 cricket and while general interest is so low that the IPL remains untelevised down under, there is plenty of interest for the keen cricket punter prepared to delve into the many online streams available.

Between all the comical fielding, BCCI propaganda and individually sponsored sixes, catches and ”moments of success” I have attempted to preview each team’s chances including the best betting angles in a competition equally devoid of integrity and Pakistanis.

 

Chennai Super Kings

The most celebrated team in the IPL having won twice and only failed to make the final once in the six years of the tournament.

The Super Kings have benefitted from stability with the least player turnover in that time as well as the recruitment of some of the best local talent including MS Dhoni, Suresh Raina, R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.

However they have arguably benefitted more from being owned by the head-honcho of Indian cricket N Srinivisan who, along with his son-in-law and some of the players (reportedly including Dhoni) are under investigation for shenanigans which could yet impact this year’s tournament.

This year Chennai have lost some stability in their top-order with long-term opening pair Mike Hussey and Murali Vijay replaced by the more explosive Brendon McCullum and Dwayne Smith. Once again they will bat relatively deep which should ensure that they’ll be unlikely to post anything below 140 batting first although a more powerful top-two gives them further scope for totals in excess of 180.

They’ve retained the core of their bowling line-add with West Indies’ Samuel Badree an excellent addition, however they will suffer for only playing two regular season games at their home ground the MA Chidambaram Stadium, where they boast an impressive record.

With all the controversy surrounding Srinivisan, Meiyappan and Dhoni I get the feeling they “won’t be allowed to win it” although their roster and historical results suggests it will be better to lay them later on.

Other than that look to get with them when they play in Chennai while with the ball it is difficult to oppose them perhaps with the exception of the death where the likes of Bravo, Ishwar Pandey, Ashish Nehra and Mohit Sharma (despite his impressive performance in last year’s competition) could go the journey.

Aussie Watch: Despite a handy record for the Super Kings Ben Hilfenhaus is unlikely to play too often with Badree likely to battle it out with one of the batsmen for the last overseas spot. John Hastings performed well in the Big Bash but is likely to only play if Dwayne Bravo is unavailable.

 

Delhi Daredevils

Delhi decided on a clear-out for this season’s tournament, being the only side not to retain a single player prior to this year’s auction.

However despite that they have ended up with a similar squad that is slated to finish in a similar position to last year’s rock bottom.

They even ended up purchasing Kevin Pietersen (who missed last year’s tournament through injury) but otherwise have replaced Virender Sehwag, David Warner, Mahela Jaywardene, Irfan Pathan and Morne Morkel with the fresher Murali Vijay, Quinton de Kock, JP Duminy, Ross Taylor and Nathan Coulter-Nile.

Dinesh Karthik, Manoj Tiwary and Saurabh Tiwary add valuable depth to the batting, while Wayne Parnell presents another all-round seam option although initially only one out of he and Coulter-Nile are likely to play.

While the batting looks better than last season the bowling again looks suspect. Rahul Sharma and Shahbaz Nadeem form a handy spin duo but there’ll be plenty of pressure on the seam attack of Mohammad Shami, Jaydev Unadkat and whoever plays out of Coulter-Nile and Parnell.

The obvious angle here is to get against the Daredevils in the field as they’re likely to concede plenty of runs on plenty of occasions. With the bat de Kock may take some time to adapt to the slower conditions (as evidenced in the world T20) so he along with Vijay could produce some sluggish starts, however Delhi’s strike-power and depth suggests it would be better to get long in the final overs.

Later in the tournament there could be opportunities to get against the Daredevils’ runs from the off as they may be forced to play two of their overseas bowlers after conceding too many in the opening stanza of the tournament.

I wouldn’t be in a hurry to back them, however their powerful batting could easily win them a few games early on and make them a decent lay as quality bowling usually decides the knock-out games.

Aussie Watch: Nathan Coulter-Nile is likely to get plenty of opportunities and will have to step-up as part of this ropey bowling attack. Look out for his overthrow sixes which have IPL written all over them in more ways than one.

 

Kolkata Knight Riders

After a fairly underwhelming defence of their 2012 title KKR decided to retain only captain Gautum Gambhir and star spinner Sunil Narine prior to this year’s auction.

However they went out and used of combination of “right to match” cards and outright bidding to bring back Jacques Kallis, Yusuf Pathan, Shakib Al Hasan and Ryan ten Doeschate as well as local ‘keepers Manvinder Bisla and Debabrata Das, giving their top/middle order a very similar look to last year.

As a result the batting looks stodgy, however the additions of Robin Uthappa, Manish Pandey, Chris Lynn and Andre Russell does provide some strike-power, if not reliability.

The bowling attack, however, has been overhauled with only Narine, Shakib and Kallis remaining from last season. The Knight Riders have waved goodbye to Brett Lee with Morne Morkel the new spearhead. They have also replaced trundlers Balaji and Bhatia with the more pacy Umesh Yadav and Vinay Kumar, while Piyush Chawla is a much more attacking spinner than Iqbal Abdulla.

KKR are one of the least favoured sides with the bookies but I’m not sure that’s right. The batting does look a tad laboured, especially with Kallis up top, but they have plenty of depth with both bat and ball and in fact boast one of the better attacks in the competition, especially in the dry conditions of the UAE and Eden Gardens.

The thing about KKR is that they have a number of players who, whilst lacking reliability and/or recent form, have a huge amount of upside. Yusuf, Uthappa, Bisla, Lynn, Pandey, Russell, Chawla and Morkel are all match-winners on their day, and while it is unlikely that all will fire on the same day or even in the same season, you only need a handful to have a big tournament and KKR will suddenly be a force.

The $11.50 available for them to win the competition is very generous, as is the $2.80 to make the top four. Other than that look to back them to defend low totals, especially on drier surfaces, while at the back end of their innings’ with the bat look for volatility either way as the likes of Yusuf, Pandey and Russell are equally capable of triggering a frantic finish or a monumental collapse.

Aussie Watch: If KKR do struggle with the bat early on then Chris Lynn may displace Shakib in the middle-order but will need to recreate his BBL form in much slower conditions. Promising quick Pat Cummins was picked up late in the auction by KKR and is only likely to play if Morkel is unavailable or Yadav loses the plot.

 

Kings XI Punjab

Punjab were largely considered the “winners” of this year’s auction after splashing out on a number of big names including Australian trio George Bailey, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Johnson.

They also retained South African “finisher” David Miller and promising batsmen Manan Vohra, as well as managing to bring back IPL specialist Shaun Marsh and local players Pavinder Awana, Mandeep Singh, Gurkeerat Singh and Sandeep Sharma who all contributed in varying degrees to the Kings’ 2013 campaign.

In addition to the retirement of Adam Gilchrist, Punjab dispensed with a number of experienced players in David Hussey, Azhar Mahmood, Piyush Chawla and Praveen Kumar. In their place comes a mix of local talent including Virender Sehwag, Cheteshwar Pujara, Wriddhiman Saha and Murali Kartik as well as a couple of more exciting overseas options in Sri Lankan all-rounder Thisara Perera and South African left-arm seamer Beuran Hendricks.

Punjab’s side certainly looks stronger on paper than last year, however they will lean heavily on their overseas contingent, of whom of course they can only play four. George Bailey will not want to follow in the footsteps of fellow Tasmanian Ricky Ponting in being dropped as captain of his IPL side but if he doesn’t score runs early on he will come under severe pressure with the weight of foreign talent within the squad.

I’d be looking to get against Punjab’s batting in the first six with Sehwag more miss than hit these days and likely to be joined up top by Pujara, Vohra or at best Marsh who can take his time to get going.

They have plenty of explosiveness through the middle with Maxwell, Miller and Thisara (although only two of those will likely play) so I’d be less keen to be short at the death, especially if one of the aforementioned have their eye in.

Their bowling is serviceable, however does lack strike outside of Johnson who is unlikely to be as effective as he was for Mumbai last year. Awana, Balaji, Murali Kartik and Rishi Dhawan are all fairly average and unlikely to restrict the better batting line-ups so I can’t envisage too many occasions when I’d want to be with Punjab in the field. In fact with Mitch still occasionally wayward I’d fancy the opposition to chase down a few big scores, especially in Mohali.

Aussie Watch: Bailey will captain while Maxwell and Johnson will be first choice marquee players that Punjab will rely heavily on. Despite a phenomenal record in this tournament over the years Shaun Marsh may have to wait for his chance but look out for him to score big if he gets a go at their home ground in Mohali.

 

Mumbai Indians

The defending champions retained the core of their title-winning side with Lasith Malinga, Kieron Pollard, Harbhajan Singh, Rohit Sharma and Ambati Rayudu held onto pre-auction, while left-arm spinner Pragyan Ojha and wicket-keeper batsman Aditya Tare were snaffled up during the auction.

The acquisition of Mike Hussey in place of the retired Sachin Tendulkar is undoubtedly an upgrade, while Dwayne Smith has made way for boom Kiwi all-rounder Corey Anderson and the loss of Mitchell Johnson has been somewhat countered by the capture of tricky West Indian left-arm seamer Krismar Santokie.

Overall, while it could be argued that Mumbai have actually improved their squad from last year, it is undoubtedly less balanced with no Dinesh Karthik in the middle-order which could see Pollard or Anderson in much earlier than desired if they lose a few early wickets.

The capture of Zaheer Khan (if fit) will help to alleviate the loss of Johnson, especially as Santokie will struggle to get a go until Malinga departs for Sri Lankan duty in May. Otherwise responsibility with the ball will fall to the familiar trio of Malinga, Harbhajan and Ohja plus contributions from the big-hitting all-rounders.

All in all Mumbai again look one of the better sides and have the added advantage of not having to carry Tendulkar this time around. In fact the reliability of Hussey should open up opportunities for Pollard and Anderson to power them home to a number of big first innings totals, although as mentioned three early wickets will have them in too soon so look to get with volatility either way.

While they will undoubtedly miss the strike provided by Johnson the combination of age and injuries are the biggest threat to their bowling line-up as there is not a lot of depth beyond the first XI which could be a problem with a number of players who are either getting on, susceptible to injury, a liability in the field or a combination of all three.

Early in the tournament the market may overrate the impact of Pollard and Anderson, especially with both on the way back from injury and the latter about to play his first IPL so there could be opportunities to get against monstrous finishes at decent prices but in general I’d be loath to oppose the pair against Indian seamers on relatively small grounds.

I’d suggest Mumbai are better than the $8 currently available for them to win the tournament, but further down the track look to get against their long-term prospects if Malinga has to miss the majority of the second-half of the competition while playing for Sri Lanka.

Aussie Watch: Ben Dunk and Josh Hazlewood will need injuries to strike the first choice squad if they are any chance of getting decent game-time during the tournament.

 

Royal Challengers Bangalore

RCB made the most eye-opening purchase of this year’s auction when they paid top dollar (or top lakh) for Yuvraj Singh.

This was in addition to the retention of Chris Gayle, Virat Kohli and AB de Villiers, and then just in case they were concerned about not having enough strike-power they added Albie Morkel.

Unfortunately for Bangalore they forgot that their bowling attack was their real concern. The names are mostly different but the result is unlikely to alter. Ravi Rampaul and Muttiah Muralitharan are back, however Mitchell Starc is likely to bear the responsibility of the marquee overseas bowler.

He will be joined by fellow quicks Varun Aaron, Ashok Dinda and Abu Nechim, as well as left-arm spinner Shadab Jakati while no doubt Morkel and Yuvraj will pitch in with a few overs.

Whether those names are an upgrade on Vinay Kumar, RP Singh, Jaydev Unadkat, Murali Kartik and an admittedly injury-raven Zaheer Khan is certainly debatable. What is not in question is that they have the most unbalanced squad in the tournament and do not deserve to carry favouritism.

The main angle on RCB will be getting with them to chase down big totals or failing to defend bigger ones, especially in the five games played at their home ground the M Chinnaswamy which will be a recipe for carnage.

Somehow the addition of Yuvraj and Starc is enough for them to be rated $5.50 jollies which should not be entertained, however look to lay them at around $1.50 to make the top four – especially as they have failed to make the semis for the past two years with a similar squad.

Aussie Watch: Nic Maddinson seems to meet the RCB brief of being a batsman capable of going at a frantic rate but is unlikely to play unless Gayle pulls a thigh muscle while practising his Gangnam Style dance in the mirror and de Villiers leaves cricket to become an astronaut.

 

Rajasthan Royals

Last year the Royals overcame an unfancied squad and the spot-fixing controversy involving three of their players to finish third and come within a whisker of the final.

Once again their roster is not packed with superstars but in typical Rajasthan style they have made a number of shrewd purchases for minimal investment.

They started by retaining Ajinka Rahane, James Faulkner, Stuart Binny, Sanju Samson and Shane Watson, who will take over from Rahul Dravid as captain. Furthermore they managed to buy back Brad Hodge, Kevon Cooper, Dishant Yagnik, Vikramjeet Malik and 42-year-old leg-spin sensation Pravin Tambe giving them the sort of stability only seen by CSK over the years.

Aside from Dravid the only significant departure is medium-pacer Siddharth Trivedi (who was embroiled in the spot-fixing scandal) and he has been ably replaced by former KKR all-rounder Rajat Bhatia.

Other local bits-and-pieces players such as Iqbal Abdulla and Abhishek Nayar add further versatility while Dhawal Kulkarni provides a bit more pace and Unmukt Chand joins as one of the most promising batsmen in the country, even if he has struggled to adapt to this format.

But the Royals weren’t restricted to cut-price local players with the in-form Steve Smith, Kiwi paceman Tim Southee and bowling all-rounders Ben Cutting and Kane Richardson added to their overseas contingent.

Overall Rajasthan look better on paper than last season so the $16.50 for them to win the tournament looks massive, as does the $3.65 to finish in the top four.

While it’s unlikely that Binny will perform as well as he did last season there should be some improvement from Samson and he along with Rahane and Watson form a solid top-order while one of Smith and Hodge along with Faulkner will bear the responsibility of going big in the death overs.

I really like the look of the Royals bowling attack with the assembly of medium-pace options ideal on the slower wickets in the UAE, while Faulkner and Southee can both be effective at the death on their day.

Look to back the Royals to choke the opposition and defend low scores on low, slow pitches and also look to back them as big underdogs against the more star-studded sides such as RCB and CSK.

Aussie Watch: Watson will captain while Faulkner will be one of the first players picked. One out of Hodge and Smith will likely take another overseas spot, while Cutting and Richardson will battle with the more established Southee and Cooper for the final foreign slot.

 

Sunrisers Hyderabad

In their first season as the rebranded Deccan Chargers, the Sunrisers surprised a few by finishing in the top four after a consistent 2013 campaign in which they only once lost two games on the trot.

They retained two of their big stars in Shikhar Dhawan and Dale Steyn then used their “right to match” cards to bring back Amit Mishra and Darren Sammy who also played a significant part in their run to the semis last year.

To round off their retention they outlaid some significant dough to maintain custody of leggie Karn Sharma, while spending less on fringe all-rounder Ashish Reddy and spared Ishant Sharma’s blushes by also picking him up late in the auction.

Gone from the 2013 squad is Cameron White, Kumar Sangakkara, Parthiv Patel, Thisara Perera and Hanuma Vihari, replaced by David Warner, Aaron Finch, Naman Ojha, Irfan Pathan and Venugopal Rao.

Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Jason Holder will give Steyn much needed assistance in the pace department while local players Parveez Rasool and Srikkanth Anirudha provide further depth and versatility.
Overall the Sunrises probably look stronger than last year, however their batting is very top-heavy with the dynamism of Dhawan, Warner and Finch leaving a big hole in the middle-order where the likes of Ojha, Anirudha or Venugopal Rao are likely to occupy the spots at 4 and 5.

At six they have Darren Sammy who is establishing himself as one of the best finishers in T20 cricket, however the Sunrisers face a similar problem to Mumbai if he has to come in too early. This means that their batting is very volatile as Sammy could just as easily be coming in at 4/40 as 3/180.

Their bowling attack looks stronger with Bhuvneshwar and Irfan providing more local options to complement Steyn and the twin spin attack of Mishra and Karn Sharma. Holder is a handy overseas signing although unlikely to see much action unless Steyn is unavailable.

Overall I find the Sunrisers’ chances hard to gauge but wouldn’t be backing them at $6.20 to win the tournament, especially with Warner and Finch less effective on the slower pitches in the UAE.

The main angle would be to stick to volatility either way with their batting and back them to defend low totals as their attack is littered with wicket-takers.

Aussie Watch: Warner and Finch will form a powerful top-order with captain Dhawan. Moises Henriques will start behind Darren Sammy in the pecking order but may get the odd chance throughout the tournament.

What’s Trott got? Reaction driven by perception

There have been some strong reactions following Jonathan Trott’s interviews with ESPNcricinfo and Sky Sports which were his first since he flew home after the first Ashes test in Brisbane.

The criticisms of Trott or the ECB (or both) seem to centre on the England batsman’s clarification that he was suffering from burn-out as opposed to depression or a similar disorder.

Many jumped to the conclusion that Trott was suffering from the latter when the ECB spoke of his “condition”, noting that it was a “stress related illness” he had been “managing for a period of time”.

The general public’s reaction to players suffering from psychological issues such as depression has come a long way in recent years with an increasing number of players feeling more comfortable about being able to come out and publicise their difficulties.

Depression is now treated with due gravity and sensitivity and one could argue is seen as the psychological equivalent to a broken leg – the most debilitating of ailments.

While no one has ever played on with a broken leg (as far as I’m aware) cricketers who have played through noticeable physical injury are eminently glorified.

Ryan Harris and Michael Clarke provided great examples at Cape Town while the heroics of Rick McCosker in the Centenary Test and Malcolm Marshall in Headingley will never be forgotten.

On the other end of the scale a sportsman who suffers from cramp is seen as unfit, unprepared and possibly even weak.

In lieu of more detailed information or understanding of what Trott was going through after the GABBA test, he was (notwithstanding the odd callous comment on social media) given the respect and compassion of someone who had broken their leg.

Now that he has updated his injury status from assumed depression to burn-out, some of those who backed him feel cheated in some way and that he doesn’t deserve the respect and compassion they originally granted him.

The problem here is that fans/pundits/realistically anyone outside the medical profession don’t know where to “place” burn-out.

We now know Trott didn’t have a broken leg and while we acknowledge he still had more than cramp no one really knows where it sits and how seriously it should be treated.

The medical brigade can feed us with information about burn-out – for example that it is not a recognised disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) but is recognised in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) – but what really counts is perception.

The prevailing perception of burn-out certainly doesn’t equate to anything like depression. It is more likely defined as a decline in performance arising from excessive commitment to the task.

This seems a fairly accurate description of what Trott experienced, only that the excessive commitment lead to an illness that was responsible for the decline in performance.

However the public are used to recognising burn-out as the cause not the consequence, which only further confuses its position as we struggle to find its place in the broad spectrum between a broken leg and a moderate bout of cramp.

Best betting angles for 2014 NRL Season

Oppose the Broncos when their rake has a rest

Hooker Andrew McCullough won the Broncos Player of the Season award in 2012 and was again one of their better performers last year.

However McCullough has not yet proven himself to be an 80 minute player, sharing the hooking role with Ben Hunt, Jake Granville and Peter Wallace last season. When he is off the field the Broncos miss his incisiveness and energy in attack and his hard work and reliability in defence.

Generally McCullough is benched around the middle third of the game and the Broncos performance during that period last year doesn’t make for great reading.

In only nine out of 24 games did they manage to score more than a converted try, being kept scoreless on six occasions and tryless on seven occasions.

On six occasions they conceded two converted tries or more and on five occasions they conceded more than 70% of the opposition’s match total.

The message is clear – get against the Broncos when McCullough is off the field.

Reynolds the prolific pest

Under Des Hasler the Bulldogs have developed a unique attacking style, using forwards as play-makers to prevent the opposition getting numbers in the tackle whilst also taking pressure off the halves to create all the space out wide.

The chief beneficiary of this system has been now-departed fullback Ben Barba who scored 32 tries in 44 games over the past two seasons. However in terms of try-scoring one of the less-heralded benefactors has been five-eighth Josh Reynolds.

Last year Reynolds was slightly longer than $2.50 to score for the Bulldogs and his career price to score is $2.86. Reynolds is not averse to scoring first either with a career first team try scorer price of $8.57. His outright first try scorer price is $15 but he scored the first try only once in 23 games for the Bulldogs last season.

Therefore look to back Reynolds to score at anything over $3.25 or to be first team try scorer at around $9.50.

Cowboys ride rough in the big smoke

For some reason the Cowboys just can’t seem to win in Sydney.

While over the past three years they are $2.29 to win away and only $2.50 to win in NSW, they are $3.80 to win in Sydney – a massive price considering they have finished in the top eight for every one of those three years.

Last season they did improve with a 50% record in Sydney from six matches, however one of their losses came against the lowly Tigers while they recorded very marginal wins against the bottom-placed Eels and 14th placed Dragons – although granted one of their losses was the controversial semi-final against Cronulla.

In fact the Cowboys seem to match up well with the Sharks having won at what is now known as Remondis Stadium on all three occasions they have met over the last three seasons.

On the flipside they have failed to win in five trips to ANZ Stadium over the past three years, although that is against typically strong opposition in Souths and Canterbury.

Still you should definitely look to get against the Cowboys in Sydney, although perhaps give matches in Cronulla a swerve.

Back the Snake but bypass big Jorge at Brookie

Flying Manly fullback Brett Stewart’s try-scoring record at Brookvale Oval is well documented. Over 10 years and 76 games he’s shorter than $1.50 to score at his home ground, having never failed to score at home in games against the Titans (4), Panthers (3), Warriors (3) and Cowboys (2).

Bustling winger Jorge Taufua is also carving out a healthy try-scoring reputation at Manly with 30 tries from 49 games. However Taufua’s record at Brookvale is not nearly as strong as you’d think with a career price of just $3.17 to score at Fortress Brookie, in comparison to $1.88 to score away from home.

Therefore when at Brookvale look to back Stewart to score at anything bigger than $1.65 and lay Taufua at anything from $2.20.

Volatile Knights

While the Knights pushed through to within one win of a grand final appearance they were wildly inconsistent throughout the 2013 season.

Big wins were often soon followed by big losses and vice versa, making them an absolute dream side to trade.

On eight out of 16 occasions they won as underdogs, three of those priced at $2.60 or bigger.

Similarly they lost four out of the 11 games they started as favs in, all of which they were priced at no higher than $1.65 and two in which they were priced shorter than $1.40.

They also drew with Brisbane after starting at around $1.50.

Furthermore they only scraped home by two points against Penrith after starting at $1.15 and came within two of Melbourne despite starting as high as $4.75.

Four times when they won as underdogs they won by 16 points or greater and they also copped a 16 point defeat against Warriors when they started favs.

Out of the 27 matches they played last season ten were decided by 20 points or more, while a further seven were decided by four points or less.

In short the Knights were more volatile than Julian O’Neill after a few drinks. Blindly backing them as underdogs or laying them as favs would’ve garnered a 30%+ return.

One of the better rosters in the comp and an enticing record against the better sides last year has been offset by a multitude of off-field incidents and a serious injury to Jarrod Mullen.

Once again it looks like you do a lot worse than getting with the Knights as dogs and getting against them as favs, especially at big prices.

Eels should not be fancied

The Parramatta Eels have been toxic over the past couple of years.

They claimed the wooden spoon in the last two years and were in that position going into the final round of 2011 before a win over the Gold Coast consigned the Titans to that “honour”.

It is therefore not surprising that in the last three years Parramatta have only started as favourites in
11 of 72 matches. Of those 11 matches Parramatta have lost six.

Last season as favs the Eels started by thrashing the Warriors in round 1 but were then annihilated by Penrith and only snuck home against the Tigers thanks to a try with two minutes to go.

There is renewed optimism at Parramatta this season with a new coach and some handy recruits but they still have comfortably one of the weakest squads in the competition and a losing culture to overcome.

Therefore as favs they are a definite auto-lay.

Panthers may take some time to purr

There’s a lot of hype around Penrith this season off the back of encouraging results in 2013, a highly regarded coach and general manager, plus a number of new signings.

However it pays to be wary of teams who recruit heavily in the off-season as if often takes time for them to develop combinations and gel effectively.

The Panthers also recruited strongly last season with six of their regular first-graders in 2013 playing their first season at the club and a further five recruits combining for over 30 games. However it did take some time for the new players to combine effectively with the Panthers losing six of their first eight games last year.

Similarly the Sharks bought a number of players in for the start of 2013 and while they (and many others) blamed the ASADA investigation for losing five of their first seven, there’s no doubt that the inability of new players to immediately fuse played a significant part.

Another example is the Gold Coast side of 2012 who had brought in an abundance of fresh talent such as Jamal Idris, Aiden Sezer, Nate Myles, Beau Champion and Luke Douglas. Despite all the exciting recruits they lost seven of their first nine.

In 2011 the Bulldogs lost five of their first 11 after bringing in Hodkinson, Pritchard, Keating, Eastwood and Tolman.

The one side that bucked the trend was the Roosters last year, however even they suffered two of their six losses for the season within the opening five rounds.

Furthermore Penrith historically don’t start the season all that well, winning only six out of 22 games prior to May since 2011, including just two out of six as favs.

So while everyone gets excited about the Panthers, I’d advise opposing them early on in the season while the new players are still trying to figure out how to work effectively together.

The Profit Elijah

One of those new players who will ply his trade at Centrebet Stadium this season is former Warriors back-rower Elijah Taylor.

While Taylor was a consistent performer during all three years at the Warriors, his first two seasons garnered just six tries in 44 appearances.

However last year Taylor became an attacking force, scoring eight times in 23 games, making him shorter than $3 to score.

He was also an impressive $4.60 to be first team-try scorer and $7.67 to be first try scorer outright, which was in contrast to his 2011-12 prices of $22 and $44 respectively.

Obviously his record prior to 2013 and the fact he is at a new club suggests you tread carefully but if his try-scoring form continues at the Panthers – which seems likely given Taylor’s pledge to focus on attack – then look to back Elijah to score at around $4.25, to be first team try scorer at $10 and first try scorer outright at anything from around $17.

Jim Jim likes to get in early

What a 2013 James Maloney had – he won a premiership, broke into the NSW Origin team and finished as the top point scorer in the NRL with an incredible success rate at the kicking tee of 87%.

The other reason that helped him to claim that last accolade was scoring nine tries in 25 games which was a pretty good return for a five-eighth. But what was more incredible was that he scored the first try in the match five times and the first try for the Roosters on six occasions.

As a result last year he was $3.13 to score, $4.17 for first team try scorer and just $5 for first try scorer outright. This compares to career prices of $3.59, $8.67 and $14.86 respectively.

While it is unlikely that Maloney will continue in quite the same vein, especially with regards to scoring first, his record at the Warriors (24 tries in 75 games) suggests he is a proven try scorer and can therefore be backed to score anytime at $3.50, to be first team try scorer at $10 and first try scorer outright at around $15.

Ok to leave it late to trade on the top eight

In general the bookies and exchanges acknowledge the parity between the majority of sides in the competition and the unpredictability of what lies ahead.

As a result you’re unable to back or lay anything outside of $1.70-$2.20 for the majority of teams to make or miss the top eight.

But don’t despair as the real opportunities open up as the season progresses. Every year at least one side comes from the clouds to make the eight – last season it was the Cowboys who came from 14th after round 18 to win seven out of their last eight and sneak in.

In 2012 the Raiders stormed home to eventually finish sixth despite spending over 75% of the season outside of the eight. At the same time the Tigers bombed out by losing eight of their last 11 to drop from fourth to tenth.

During the season the middle block of the competition (teams positioned 7th-12th) are rarely separated by more than four points, however as the season comes towards the home stretch this is rarely reflected in the prices, opening up various opportunities at enticing odds.

So if you want to take a position on who will finish inside or outside the top eight you’re best advised to wait a little while until the more attractive prices come into play despite the majority of sides still being locked closely together in the middle of the table.

New rules = More Points (but be wary)

In 2014 the NRL are implementing nine new rules and the most likely impact is more points.

Stopping the clock in the last five minutes of a match and 80 seconds following the scoring of a try, restricting how often a captain can speak to the referee, awarding an extra tackle from a 20m restart and allowing quick taps will all directly make the game faster and more continuous.

A crackdown on “cannonball” and “crusher” tackles will also likely expedite the play-the-ball and make the game even faster, tiring players in the process.

Replacing scrums with taps after 40/20s and kicks out on the full may actually deny the attacking side a more likely immediate scoring opportunity, however the difference will be negligible as if taps can be taken quickly this will speed up the game further.

I would suggest taking a cautious approach early and waiting to see just how these new rules affect points scored. Early season games are traditionally lower scoring but this could be countered by the new rules, leaving few opportunities to get involved.

One thing to note is that the impact of stopping the clock during the last five minutes may be overestimated, especially if we see some instances early in the season of points being piled on late in close games.

The rule states that the clock will only be stopped following a conversion or penalty kick at goal and is therefore designed for tight finishes.

However of the 16 matches in which 60 or more points were scored last year the margin was 28 or greater in 11 of them. Therefore in the highest-scoring games there is unlikely to be the urgency facilitated by the clock-stop rule, which means that the higher quotes could be too high, while in games priced up as lower-scoring and close the quote could be too small.

The other obvious opportunity is backing sides at long odds with 15-20 mins to go in the knowledge that that 15-20 mins has the potential value of 20-25 mins. This rule would’ve suited the Tigers side of 2008-11 perfectly as they were often at their best when 12-18 points behind with 15-20 mins to go.

This rule should produce more last minute gubbings but the key will be identifying at which point the market hasn’t sufficiently taken the new rule into account.

Eagle Empire

While it was the Sydney Roosters who took the spoils by claiming the 2013 NRL title in Trent Robinson’s first season at the club, it is worth reflecting on the achievement of runners-up Manly who reached a remarkable fourth grand final in seven years.

With the Sea Eagles achieving this feat in the era of the salary cap, losing stacks of representative players along the way (as well as a pretty handy coach), could it be suggested that their achievement is on par with that of Parramatta and the Bulldogs who ruled the 1980s with four premierships each?

Unlike the 80’s when ten premierships were shared between only four clubs, the modern day salary cap has ensured that no team has won back-to-back titles for 20 years. During that time dynasties have been replaced by periods of dominance lasting generally no longer than a couple of years.

The Roosters made three consecutive grand finals between 2002-04 but the following year could not even make the top eight. Towards the end of the decade the Dragons won consecutive minor premierships, converting the second of those into the big prize but faded soon after.

However Manly haven’t missed out on the finals for nine years and since 2006 they’ve finished in the top five every year bar 2010.

Their dominance during that period is unrivalled.

Discounting the Melbourne Storm who benefitted from salary cap breaches up to 2010 (and have arguably continued to benefit), Manly’s win percentage of 65% (regular season only) is well clear of their next closest rival Brisbane at 54%.

The gap between first and second is by far the greatest with the majority of positions separated by less than 1%.

 

Another indicator of Manly’s dominance over the past eight seasons is their points differential of +1,220 which is more than two-and-a-half times greater than St-George Illawarra who sit second in that particular area, and more than four times ahead of the Broncos in third.

 

Moreover Manly have been able to maintain this dominance despite having to shed a mass of quality players.

Since the end of 2006 the Eagles have waved goodbye to an incredible 17 representative players, including Dally M Medallist Matt Orford, club legend Steve Menzies, exciting youngster Will Hopoate and 2013 grand final winner Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.

They also had to deal with the acrimonious departure of star coach Des Hasler to the Bulldogs, while at the very top the boardroom has been openly at war throughout virtually this entire period.

2013 was somewhat symbolic of Manly’s run over the past eight years, defying the odds to overcome boundless challenges.

There was the continued quarrelling at board level with one director granted an AVO against another on the eve of the finals.

There were the regular injuries to key players which saw them lose their most potent weapon for a third of the season and arrive at the big dance without three first-choice prop forwards.

There were the bruising encounters in the first three weeks of the finals which were meant to knock the stuffing out of them, especially with star players Jamie Lyon and Anthony Watmough operating below 100%.

And yet this indomitable club fought its way to within agonisingly close reach of another premiership.

While Manly may not have been crowned champions of 2013, they further cemented a modern-day dynasty that you could argue is every bit as impressive and dominant as those of the Bulldogs and the Eels in the 80’s.